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Pros & Cons
Pros
Using mle to get the ‘excess’ or ‘shadow’ mean (the mean beyond the sample max) works better for out-of-sample inference than use of the sample mean (biased under thick tails) using [evt] mle with a parametric gini (exponential family) in the presence... Read More
Cons
Taleb seems to lack the knack for expressing technical concepts. There are so many incongruent sentences and typos that it feels nassim has written this book for his ardent fanboys. The math belongs to the pre-computing era, with proofs that rely on o... Read More
Highlights
Quality
I have read the incerto three times once every year for the last three years
Note the divergence the probability of the realization being at or close to the mean is about nil
Very rarely do i find myself disagreeing with taleb
Competitiveness
Volume 1 of the technical incerto statistical consequences of fat tails is a great addition to talebs collection of work
Ive read listened to the entire incerto
Overview
- How are reviewers describing this item?
finite, higher, infinite, binary and mean. - Our engine has profiled the reviewer patterns and has determined that there is minimal deception involved.
- Our engine has determined that the review content quality is high and informative.
- Our engine has discovered that over 90% high quality reviews are present.
- This product had a total of 288 reviews as of our last analysis date on Aug 28 2023.
Helpful InsightsBETA
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
Some highlightsinsurance can only work in mediocristan you should never write an uncapped insurance contract if there is risk of catastrophe
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
The point is called the catastrophe principle
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
The fattest tail distribution has just one very large extreme deviation rather than many departures from the normas tails fatten to mimic what happens in financial markets for example the probability of a single event staying within one standard deviation rises
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
We get higher peaks smaller shoulders and a higher incidence of a very large deviationbeta sharpe ratio and other common hackneyed financial metrics are uninformativewhen variance is infinite r2 should be 0
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
But because samples are necessarily finite it will show deceivingly higher numbers than 0
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
Effectively under thick tails r2 is useless uninformative and often downright fraudulentwhat is called evidence based science unless rigorously disconfirmatory is usually interpolative evidencefree and unscientificstating violence has dropped because the number of people killed in wars has declined from the previous year or decade is not a scientific statementrobustfragileantifragile is robust what does not produce variability across perturbation of parameters of the probability distribution
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
If there is change but with an asymmetry concave or convex response to such perturbation the classification is fragilityantifragilitythe rationality of of common people with a good tail risk detector compared to the ignorance of experts
Posted by a reviewer on Amazon
People are more calibrated to consequences and properties of distributions than psychologists claim
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